Saltwater Challenge Prognostics

What is a Prognostic?

Prognostics are a calculation of race results as a percentage of efficiency when measured against a World Best time (for National Team boats, or Open divisions) or a Time Standard (for all other Categories such as Masters and Schools). The Time Standards are based on an Australian Standard not World’s best time. For this reason we can not directly compare World best prognostics (open races) to Australian Standards (masters). 

Why Prognostics?

ERC has for several years been using prognostics to determine our master’s handicaps at the SWC regatta. This is due to a general belief that the results are fairer for competitors and allow crews to compare their own performance, not only against other crews, but also against themselves - from year to year and between regattas.

Why is it fairer?

Because a lot of actual data has gone into calculating the time standards of each boat class. It is not an estimated time but based on real rowing results. This figure is based on meters per second and can be easily adjusted to reflect different race distances.

The main advantage of using a system like this is that the distance and conditions that affect the time of the race are taken into account in the calculation automatically and apply to every boat in the race. 

Example: if a coxed four had a handicap of 10 seconds from a coxless boat for a 4500m race in calm conditions and on the day a strong wind was blowing and the race took an extra 2 mins, the handicap should be altered to account for that but often would not have been when a set handicap is applied.

Stuart Wilson from Sykes has provided us with valuable advice over the years to ensure we get this right.

How are the Prognostics Calculated?

We take your overall time (converted into seconds), and divide it by the distance of the course to calculate your metres per second. We then compare your metres per second by the standard metres per second (listed above) to get your prognostic percentage. 

 What are the Figures?

These are the prognostic meters per second figures used for SWC masters boat classes. 

This information is also available from the RV website.