Masters Prognostics

What is a Prognostic?

Prognostics are a calculation of race results as a percentage of efficiency when measured against a World Best Time (for National Team boats/Open Divisions) or a Time Standard (for all other categories such as Masters/Schools). The time standards are based on an Australian Standard (not World's best) time. For this reason, we can not directly compare World best prognostics (open races) to Australian Standards (Masters).

Why Prognostics?

ERC has for several years been using prognostics to determine our Master's handicaps at the Saltwater Challenge Regatta. This is due to a general belief that the results are fairer for competitors and allow crews to compair their own performance, not against only other crews, but also against themselves - from year to year and between regattas.

Why is it Fairer?

Because a lo of actual data has gone into the calculating the time standards of each boat class. It is not an estimated time but based on real rowing results. This figure is based on meters per second but can be easily adjusted to reflect different race distances.

The main advantage of using a system like this is that the distance and conditions that affect the time of the race are taken into account in the calculation automatically and apply to every boat in the race.

Example: If a Coxed Four had a handicap of 10 seconds from a coxless boat for a 4500m race in calm conditions and on the day a strong wind was blowing and the race took an extra 2 minutes, the handicap should be altered to account for that but often would not have been when a set handicap is applied.

Stuart Wilson from Sykes provided us with valuable advice over the years to ensure we get this right!

How are the Prognostics Calculated?

We take your overall time (converted into seconds), and divide it by the distance of the course to calculate your meters per second speed. We then compare this speed to the standard speed (in meters/second) listed below to get your prognostic percentage.

What are the Figures?

See below for the prognostic speeds (in meters per second) used for Saltwater Challenge Masters boat classes.